Singapore: In the major developed markets, spending on branded medicines will remain essentially unchanged in 2015 from the level in 2010, since all increases in spending on brands will be offset by reduced spending on those brands losing patent protection. Innovative products are expected to be launched which will bring important new treatment options to patients with cancer, diabetes, thrombosis and debilitating diseases of the central nervous system. Additional important new therapies with orphan drug designations or narrow indications are also expected, but will not be a major driver of increased spending.

All of the increase in spending on brands, both new and existing, will be offset by patent expiries in the period of 2010-15, will reduce brand spending by $120 billion through 2015. Only spending on generics will increase in developed markets over the next five years. In high growth emerging markets, spending will increase by $150 billion, as improved access and strengthening economies drive higher demand, primarily for generic drugs.

Policy-Driven Changes and Impacts Through 2015
Significant policy changes, made in 2010, will have longer-term impacts on the spending and usage of medicines across many countries including the passage of the Affordable Care Act in the U.S., a sweeping reform of Japan's unique every-other-year price-cut system, and several new reforms to rebalance spending priorities in each major European market. Important steps were also taken in the U.S. and Europe in the development of scientific guidelines for the approval of biosimilars.

Key Therapy Areas
Spending on most therapies will grow at slower rates - or even decline - through 2015. Specialty medicines will experience continued growth in the medium term driven by novel mechanisms, improved efficacy and relatively large patient populations, leading to increased uptake of these high-value medicines. Global oncology spending will reach $75 billion by 2015 as existing targeted therapies have already been widely adopted in most developed markets, some major products will be exposed to generic competition, and new products, with the potential to extend lives, will add treatment options in several major tumors, but will not contribute to significantly higher spending.

Global spending on diabetes will increase by 4-7percent accompanying increased prevalence of Type 2 diabetes and treatment rates especially in countries such as China, India, Mexico and Brazil.

Greater use of oral antidiabetic agents is expected due to their convenience and efficacy. Annual spending growth through 2010-2015 will slow to 2-5 percent for asthma and COPD medicines compared to 9 percent growth in the period of 2005-10. Spending on lipid regulators will fall to $31 billion in 2015 from $37 billion in 2010 and patent expiries will limit angiotensin inhibitors growth to 1-4 percent.

Source: Extracted from the report 'The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook Through 2015' by IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, 2011