17 July 2014 | Analysis | By BioSpectrum Bureau
Manufacturers are expected to target the pediatric population for vaccination, as this will likely improve coverage rates
Singapore: While Sanofi has progressed to phase III clinical trials for its dengue vaccine and is expecting to launch it by 2015, analyst firm Global Data predicts that Brazil and Mexico are projected to be leading contributors to the dengue vaccine market, estimated to be around $70 million in 2015 to $400 million by 2020.
Brazil and Mexico dengue vaccine market are estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42 percent followed by India, Singapore and Thailand.
Global Data report states that Brazil and Mexico will achieve a combined market share of over 98 percent across countries including India, Singapore and Thailand by 2015 with respective sales of $45 million, equaling a 64 percent market share and $24 million at 34 percent.
The analyst firm further mentions that these shares will change dramatically by 2020 as Mexico will surge ahead to generate $217 million, a 54 percent market share, while Brazil's more modest growth will take it to $97 million at 24 percent.
Mr Christopher J Pace, Analyst, Global Data said, "The rapid uptake of dengue vaccines will be driven primarily by the inclusion of live-attenuated vaccines in national immunization programs."
"Past failures of vector control initiatives to curtail the spread of the Aedes aegypti mosquito have left a glaring void in the dengue prevention and control landscape, which will hasten the uptake of vaccines. We expect manufacturers to target the pediatric population for vaccination, as this will likely improve coverage rates and provide a more sustained revenue source for these vaccine manufacturers."
Sanofi's CYD-TDV is anticipated to be the first dengue vaccine to reach market followed by Takeda's Denvax.